Geothermal vs Wind and Solar: Why Raw Materials Could Be the Tipping Point

Wind and solar dominate the renewable headlines. But buried beneath the noise is a deeper truth: geothermal consumes far fewer raw materials per megawatt produced. In an era of volatile tariffs, fractured supply chains, and critical mineral scarcity, that matters more than ever.

This isn't about bashing wind or solar. It's about acknowledging that not all renewables are created equal — especially when it comes to upstream risk, capital efficiency, and true energy independence.

Geothermal Builds Deep, Not Wide

Most people picture geothermal as niche. In reality, it's a base-load, 24/7 power source that doesn’t rely on the sun shining or the wind blowing. But its secret advantage is structural: it uses a fraction of the steel, concrete, copper, and silicon needed to deploy comparable megawatts from wind or solar. Why?

• No transmission sprawl

  
  

• Minimal surface infrastructure

  
  

• No panel fields or turbine arrays

  
  

Geothermal wells are vertical assets. One drilling rig, one pad, one injection-return loop. That’s it.

LCOE Isn’t the Whole Story—Try Levelized Material Cost

Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is the go-to metric for comparing generation types. But it’s blind to something critical: upstream material cost and supply chain exposure.

Let’s call it Levelized Material Cost (LMC): a conceptual metric that asks, "How much raw material is embedded per MWh of delivered energy over the project lifetime?"

It reframes the question from "how cheap is energy?" to "how scalable is this energy given real-world material limits?"

The table below gives a quick snapshot of average raw material usage per MW installed:

Material Bottlenecks Are the New Ceiling

Even if a project's LCOE looks great, material constraints are becoming the true bottleneck.

• Copper production isn’t scaling fast enough to meet combined EV + solar + grid needs

  
  

• Steel prices remain volatile, and high-strength plate is increasingly tied up by defense and industrial demand

  
  

• New mines face ESG opposition, long permitting timelines, and limited capital investment

  
  

The result? A silent ceiling on how fast wind and solar can scale. According to a Berkeley Lab Report, there is an interconnection backlog of 2.6 TW  — yes, with a "T" — worth of projects (170% of US consumption) in approval, 95% of which are wind and solar. Many won’t get built because they can’t source components.

Geothermal avoids these chokepoints. Once the pad is drilled, the supply chain risk is mostly behind you.

Why Tariff Volatility Hits Wind and Solar Harder

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is pouring billions into renewables, but geopolitical risk still bites.

• Solar: 80% of global PV production comes from China. Duties, quotas, and shipping costs inject cost instability.

  
  

• Wind: Large turbine blades and nacelles require steel plate imports often hit by anti-dumping measures.

  
  

• Geothermal: Once the drill is spinning, most value is created on U.S. soil. It’s a supply chain hedge.

  
  

This gives geothermal developers a predictable cost curve — something CFOs and project financiers crave.

Strategic Implications for Operators and Investors

If you’re planning energy infrastructure in 2025 and beyond:

• Audit upstream inputs. Ask: How exposed is this project to global commodity swings?

  
  

• Model LMC (Levelized Material Cost) alongside LCOE. It’s a better indicator of supply chain risk.

  
  

• Look local. Geothermal is a made-in-America energy source that builds resilience by default.

  
  

• Partner with drillers. Oil & gas expertise is now geothermal’s unfair advantage.

  
  

• Rethink growth models. Fastest path to gigawatt-scale might not be lowest cost — it's lowest friction.

  
  

Wind and solar are vital, but they ride on fragile global value chains. Geothermal drills past them. It’s less flashy, more stable, and built for the long game.

In an era of tariff turbulence and material bottlenecks, that’s not just a feature. It’s a moat.

Next Step: If you're building or funding energy projects, it's time to add LMC to your toolkit. Geothermal might be your most overlooked asset.

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